Russia’s diesel cargoes set to surge after lifting of export ban

Russia plans to boost diesel shipments from its main western ports by more than half next month as the nation’s oil refineries processes more crude, its domestic fuel market stabilizes, and an export ban that roiled October flows is reversed.

Loadings from Russian ports on the Black and Baltic Seas, including some batches originating in Belarus, are set at a total 2.16 million tons for November, according to industry data seen by Bloomberg. That’s 56% above the October plan and Russia’s highest planned exports in three months. 

Russia imposed a temporary ban on most diesel export flows in late September in a move to quell spiraling domestic road-fuel prices. While most of the restrictions were lifted two weeks later, the government ordered key refineries to keep half of their diesel at home to stabilize the market. 

The restrictions affected the Russian export plan for October and created uncertainties over how much diesel the nation’s producers would be able to sell overseas in the future, given seasonal refinery maintenance and potential volatility of domestic road-fuel prices that could prompt the government reimpose curbs. 

However, Russia’s refineries have been steadily processing more crude in recent weeks, with the main seasonal work expected to be completed by mid-November. Domestic pump prices of diesel have stabilized, the government press service said Friday.

The planned hike in Russian seaborne diesel exports should help to offset the impact of seasonal refinery work throughout Asia that may limit that region’s diesel supplies.

The November plan seen by Bloomberg News only shows shipments of diesel delivered to ports by pipeline, which are permitted by the government decree. Actual flows may differ, depending on the weather and demand from overseas buyers.