Russia to keep grain export quota high after another bumper crop

Russia is looking to keep its seasonal grain export quota at an elevated level that’s unlikely to curb shipments, following another bumper wheat harvest.

It will likely set a grain-export quota of 24 million tons for the second half of the season, from Feb. 15 to the end of June, Interfax reported, citing First Deputy Agriculture Minister Oksana Lut. The amount of the quota designated for wheat wasn’t specified.

“The quota level is quite generous,” said Dmitry Rylko, director of Moscow-based consultant IKAR. That means it’s unlikely to limit exports, he said.

While Russia has previously used quotas to shore up domestic grain supplies, the Kremlin is emulating the sizable cap it introduced for 2022, which meant there was little impact on global markets. That reflects another huge harvest for a nation that’s cemented its position as the world’s No. 1 wheat shipper following Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine.

The Kremlin’s war — including blockading and bombarding ports — has hobbled Ukraine’s food exports. By contrast, Russian traders have overcome the financing and logistical challenges some faced in the aftermath of the invasion to deliver record shipments.

The Russian export quota includes shipments from regions of Ukraine occupied by Moscow’s forces, Interfax reported.