Record US oil output seen leading non-OPEC growth next year

The US is expected to account for the lion’s share of non-OPEC oil growth next year as American drillers pump a record amount of crude.  

Production is seen reaching 12.8 million barrels a day in 2024, surpassing the current annual high of 12.3 million set in 2019, according to the Energy Information Administration’s monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook. If materialized, next year’s figure would exceed 2023’s projected output of 12.4 million barrels.

The record forecast underscores the increasingly vital role the US plays in the global market, especially as sanctions have crippled exports from major producers including Russia. While capital discipline and poor demand induced US drillers to limit production growth last year, a stronger GDP in 2024 and rising oil consumption may spur more drilling. Global oil demand is expected to grow by more than 1 million barrels a day in 2023, and by another 1.7 million barrels a day in 2024, according to the EIA.

Still, the agency warned that rapidly growing production could result in a surplus that weighs on prices next year. The US and other producers outside the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries — and excluding Russia — are expected to add 2.4 million barrels a day of output in 2023 and an additional 1.1 million barrels in 2024, the EIA said. The US would contribute 60% of the non-OPEC growth next year.