Oil steadies, but heads for weekly drop on firmer supply outlook

Oil prices recouped losses on Friday to edge higher, but stayed on track for a weekly fall as investors weighed expectations for increased output from Libya and the broader OPEC+ group against fresh stimulus from top importer China.

Brent crude futures were up 15 cents, or 0.21%, at $71.75 per barrel, as of 0630 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were up 18 cents, or 0.27%, to $67.85.

On a weekly basis, Brent crude has shed about 3.7%, while WTI was on track to slide nearly 5.7%.

Though investors across asset classes cheered after Chinese authorities finally released bolder stimulus, oil markets seem fixated on Libya and OPEC this week, said Priyanka Sachdeva, senior market analyst at Phillip Nova.

"The recent decision by OPEC+ to ramp up production has only added to the gloom," Sachdeva said, adding that the oil market has been struggling with weakening demand over the past few months.

"While it's uncertain whether Chinese stimulus will translate into higher fuel demand, it may still offer some respite to the oil market."

China's central bank on Friday lowered interest rates and injected liquidity into the banking system as Beijing assembled a last-ditch stimulus assault to pull economic growth back towards this year's roughly 5% target.

More fiscal measures are expected to be announced before China's holidays starting on Oct. 1, after a meeting of the Communist Party's top leaders showed an increased sense of urgency about mounting economic headwinds.

Meanwhile, rival factions staking claims for control of the Central Bank of Libya signed an agreement to end their dispute on Thursday. The dispute had caused a sharp reduction in oil production and exports in the country, with crude exports down to 400,000 barrel per day (bpd) this month, from over 1 million barrels last month.

The agreement could see more than 500,000 bpd of Libyan supply return to markets, ANZ Bank analyst Daniel Hynes said.

Separately, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), and its allies, a group known as OPEC+, are currently cutting oil output by a total of 5.86 million bpd, but plans to reverse 180,000 bpd of those cuts in December.

A media report on Wednesday claimed the previously announced reversal is due to Saudi Arabia's decision to abandon a $100 oil price target and gain market share, causing oil prices to slide by 3% in the previous session.

Saudi Arabia, the de facto leader of OPEC+, has repeatedly denied targeting a certain oil price, and sources at the wider group told Reuters that the plans to raise output in December do not represent any major change from existing policy.

"All in all, it is evident that oil markets remain very cautious about global oil balances in 2025 and what OPEC+ "should do", with the recent bearish mood being underscored by the record low net length across ICE Brent contracts for managed money positioning," analysts at FGE Energy told clients on Thursday.

(Reporting by Gabrielle Ng in Singapore and Shariq Khan in New York; Editing by Christian Schmollinger, Kim Coghill and Sherry Jacob-Phillips)