Oil set for weekly gain despite potential for libyan exports

Oil is on track for its largest weekly gain since June, buoyed by renewed calls for compliance out of the OPEC+ alliance and a decline in U.S. crude inventories.

Futures in New York edged higher on Friday, after falling as much as 1.6% following an announcement from Libyan military commander Khalifa Haftar that he will allow crude production and exports to resume. While Haftar reached the agreement with the country’s deputy premier, it was unclear whether the deal that excluded the National Oil Co. would actually restart exports.

Meanwhile, U.S. crude futures are 10% higher for the week, following a show of determination by Saudi Arabia, the most influential nation in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, to defend the market on Thursday. The Saudis hinted they’re prepared for new production cuts, and lambasted OPEC+ members that have cheated on production quotas.

“Depending on Libyan oil supply coming online seems like it’s a pretty risky bet,” said Michael Lynch, president of Strategic Energy & Economic Research, so traders likely aren’t willing to make sizable wagers on it heading into the weekend. Saudi Arabia’s unambiguous comments on Thursday, though, give market participants the confidence they can “rely on OPEC to keep the taps turned off for a bit longer,” said Lynch.

Haftar controls most of eastern Libya and has halted operations and shipments from his territory as part of a campaign against the internationally recognized Tripoli government. The OPEC member is pumping just 80,000 barrels a day, but produced 1.2 million a day last year.

Oil is poised to reverse last week’s losses in New York, which pushed West Texas Intermediate futures toward $37 a barrel amid a slew of downbeat demand forecasts from industry heavyweights and top energy organizations from the International Energy Agency to Trafigura Group and BP Plc. Prices gained support this week after U.S. government data showed crude and gasoline stockpiles declining. Crude still may not be out of the woods, with distillate supplies at record highs and refining margins for the fuel deteriorating in the U.S. and Europe.

Meanwhile, there is ongoing debate of the state of the global supply picture heading into the end of the year. Among the latest voices to chime in, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said global oil inventories should draw down this month and the market is likely to see a deficit of 3 million barrels a day in the fourth quarter. That comes after conflicting views this week out of Vitol Group and Trafigura over whether supplies will shrink or head back into surplus by year-end.