North American transportation to balance forward momentum with policy shifts in 2025

North American airports, toll roads and ports have settled into a new normal heading into 2025, though Fitch Ratings says in its 2025 transportation infrastructure outlook that the coming year will not be without some potential disruptions, particularly for ports. Fitch’s sector outlook for all three major subsets of transportation remains neutral.

Airports have reached full pre-pandemic recovery with mildly positive increases for 2025 as the sector moves more in line toward its historical correlation with GDP. “While consumer spending for travel still remains largely healthy, general economic pressures may diminish the demand while political decisions brought on by the incoming administration could create obstacles to perform in-line with expectations,” said Senior Director Seth Lehman.

The same steady growth trajectory appears set for toll road traffic in the coming year. Telecommuting has shifted traffic patterns with more dispersion across commuting hours and observable declines in remote work, if continued, would be positive for the sector. Conversely, toll hikes tied to inflation or to offset capital investments may soften the upside in volume growth.

The most potential for volatility in 2025 emanates from ports. The sector should benefit from consumer spending as port throughput continues to stabilize. However, ‘global maritime trade may see volatility based on geopolitical developments particularly if higher tariff levels and/or other trade restrictions are amplified,’ said Lehman. Also hanging in the balance is continued uncertainty surrounding the labor environment due to ongoing labor negotiations at U.S. East/Gulf Coast ports and in Canada at the Ports of Montreal and Vancouver.