ITS Logistics November Supply Chain Report

ITS Logistics released the November ITS Supply Chain Report. Last month, the U.S. economy displayed resilience amidst a transitioning monetary policy and external disruptions but faced ongoing challenges in housing affordability, labor market cooling, and inflationary stickiness. Growth prospects also remain modestly positive, with fiscal and monetary adjustments likely to play key roles in 2025. Despite having a positive outcome for November, the U.S. economic outlook is influenced by several key risks that could impact growth and stability in the near term. These key concerns include inflationary pressure, monetary policy uncertainty, global economic uncertainty, and consumer confidence.

“Recent data indicates that inflation remains a concern, with the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index expected to rise by 2.5% in November, up from 2.3% in October,” said ITS Logistics CFO Stan Kolev. “This upward trend suggests that inflation is becoming more persistent, which may compel the Federal Reserve to maintain higher interest rates for an extended period, potentially dampening economic growth.”

As the Federal Reserve's approach to curbing inflation continues to remain under scrutiny, the speed and scale of these adjustments will be evaluated at each meeting, introducing uncertainty into financial markets and investment planning. Furthermore, while the global economic environment presents additional risks, the European Union’s economy is returning to modest growth after a period of stagnation. However, geopolitical tensions and energy security concerns pose significant uncertainties.

While the economy continues to evolve, further impacting various supply chain sectors as 2024 comes to a close, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Purchase Managers’ Index (PMI) registered at 48.4% in November, an increase of 1.9 points compared to October. In addition, the Savannah freight market showcased import volumes that were 12% whigher than last year, driving up outbound truckload volumes by 16% year over year (YOY).

FreightWaves The Stockout recently reported that, as it relates to the closely monitored freight market, the tender rejection rate has risen steadily since early October despite the tender volume decline. This implies that capacity is leaving the market, leading to a tighter freight market. Principal Analyst at DAT Freight and Analytics, Dean Croke, said, “I sort of caution people to pause and take a breath about what next year looks like. I see more headwinds than anything, especially in the first six months for carriers in particular as well as manufacturers and shippers. This is because it will take time for interest rate cuts to materialize, for any changes in corporate tax cuts to flow through to business, and for that to result in some sort of an economic stimulus.”

ITS Logistics offers a full suite of network transportation solutions across North America and distribution and fulfillment services to 95% of the U.S. population within two days. These services include drayage and intermodal in 22 coastal ports and 30 rail ramps, a full suite of asset and asset-lite transportation solutions, omnichannel distribution and fulfillment, LTL, and outbound small parcel.

The monthly ITS Supply Chain Report serves to inform ITS employees, partners, and customers of marketplace changes and updates. The information in the report combines data provided through DAT and various industry sources with insights from the ITS team.