Iran war conflict could create systemic gas demand destruction, says top sector official

The natural gas demand destruction currently resulting from the Iran war as governments implement measures to mitigate the crisis risks becoming structural if the conflict persists, the head of the Gas Exporting Countries Forum said on Wednesday.

Since the Middle East crisis began at the end of February, more than 500 million barrels of crude and condensate have been knocked out of the global market, according to Kpler data - the largest energy supply disruption in modern history.

Countries dependent upon Gulf supplies have reacted by switching to burning coal and accelerating the switch to renewables.

Speaking at the Invest in African Energy conference in Paris, Philip Mshelbila - secretary general of the body representing a dozen countries holding 70% of the world’s proven natural gas reserves - said such measures are currently a short-term response to the crisis.

"If the conflict ended today, the world would recover in six months to a year. But if it lasts six months, those knee-jerk changes we are seeing could become structural," he said.

He said that 2026 had been meant to be a pivotal year for the sector, with a tight global gas market flipping into oversupply.

"Clearly this conflict has done something to that, and it's not yet clear whether it's just a delay, or whether in fact that glut will ever come," Mshelbila said.

GULF CRISIS A MISSED OPPORTUNITY FOR AFRICA

Addressing an audience including African energy ministers, Mshelbila said African gas producers were missing an opportunity to step in and fill the supply gap caused by Middle East outages and restricted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

"Sadly while some African countries have excess capacity in both LNG and pipeline gas, the majority of them if not all are not producing at full capacity," he said.

"If you look at the export pipelines to Europe, from Algeria or from Libya, not one of them is full."

As a result, North American producers are instead capturing the European and Asian gas markets, Mshelbila said. 

"Normally in a situation of crisis this is an opportunity: Fill it up! Seize the market! Unfortunately we are missing out, because we don't have the upstream molecules to fill the infrastructure," he said. "The reserves are there, but they are still in the ground."