Import cargo rising as higher tariffs and potential port strike approach

With a strike possible again next month at East Coast and Gulf Coast container ports and President-elect Donald Trump planning to increase tariffs, the nation’s major container ports are expected to see a continued surge in imports through next spring, according to the Global Port Tracker report released today by the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates.

“Either a strike or new tariffs would be a blow to the economy and retailers are doing what they can to avoid the impact of either for as long as they can,” NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said. “We hope that both can be avoided, but bringing in cargo early is a prudent step to mitigate the impact on our industry, consumers and the nation’s economy. We call on both parties at the ports to return to the table, get a deal done and avoid a strike. And we call on the incoming administration to use tariffs in a strategic manner rather than a broad-based approach impacting everyday consumer goods.”

Talks have broken down between the International Longshoremen’s Association and the U.S. Maritime Alliance, leaving the potential for a strike after the current contract extension reached after a three-day strike in October expires January 15. NRF last week led a coalition of trade associations in sending a letter asking both parties to return to the bargaining table. Meanwhile, Trump has said he plans to increase a wide range of tariffs once he takes office on January 20.

Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett said retailers are under pressure as they frontload cargo to avoid both the disruption of the strike and higher costs from the tariffs.

“Prospects of reaching a quick agreement on the key sticking point of automation are not looking good,” Hackett said, referring to the port labor contract. “The window to frontload goods on vessels arriving before a potential strike is quickly closing. Then there are issues as President-elect Trump promises to increase tariffs when he takes office. It is not clear whether this will actually take effect immediately or whether it will take time to implement the tariffs, but shippers are moving up as much cargo as they can before then.”

U.S. ports covered by Global Port Tracker handled 2.25 million Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units – one 20-foot container or its equivalent – in October, although the Port of Miami has yet to report final data. That was down 1.2% from September but up 9.3% year over year.

Ports have not yet reported November’s numbers, but Global Port Tracker projected the month at 2.17 million TEU, up 14.4% year over year. December is forecast at 2.14 million TEU, up 14.3% year over year. That would bring 2024 to 25.6 million TEU, up 14.8% from 2023. Before the October strike and November’s elections, November had been forecast at 1.91 million TEU and December at 1.88 million TEU, while the total for 2024 was forecast at 24.9 million TEU.

January 2025 is forecast at 2.2 million TEU, up 12% year over year; February at 1.87 million TEU, down 4.1% because of fluctuations in the timing of Lunar New Year shutdowns at Asian factories; March at 2.17 million TEU, up 12.7%, and April at 2.15 million TEU, up 6.6%.

Global Port Tracker, which is produced for NRF by Hackett Associates, provides historical data and forecasts for the U.S. ports of Los Angeles/Long Beach, Oakland, Seattle and Tacoma on the West Coast; New York/New Jersey, Port of Virginia, Charleston, Savannah, Port Everglades, Miami and Jacksonville on the East Coast, and Houston on the Gulf Coast. The report is free to NRF retail members, and subscription information is available at NRF.com/PortTracker or by calling (202) 783-7971. Subscription information for non-members can be found at www.globalporttracker.com.

As the leading authority and voice for the retail industry, NRF analyzes economic conditions affecting the industry through reports such as Global Port Tracker.