Import Cargo could surge ahead of potential port strike and Trump tariffs

Import volumes at the nation’s major container ports could be higher than previously expected for the remainder of this year as retailers face another potential East Coast/Gulf Coast port strike and tariff increases planned by President-elect Donald Trump, according to the Global Port Tracker report released today by the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates.

“October’s strike lasted only three days but there’s the potential for a longer strike if a new labor contract is not reached after the contract extension runs out in mid-January,” NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said. “That has retailers spending extra to bring in cargo early or continue shifting it to the West Coast to avoid any potential disruptions, much like they did earlier this year. And we’re hearing that some merchants will also move up shipments to avoid the costly tariff increases expected after Donald Trump returns to the White House. Neither of these developments is good for retailers, their customers or the economy.”

The International Longshoremen’s Association briefly went on strike at East and Gulf Coast ports in October after its contract with the U.S. Maritime Alliance expired. But longshoremen went back to work after the parties agreed to a wage increase and a contract extension until January 15. The parties are set to resume formal negotiations next week.

An NRF study released this week found that tariff increases proposed by Trump could drive up consumer prices by as much as $78 billion a year.

Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett said the potential for a January strike “can be seen in the continuing increases in U.S. imports from Asia, which have not fallen away as expected.” And worries over higher tariffs are a global concern, he said.

“We are witnessing elections around the world where discontent is leading to inward-looking policies that threaten trade with the almost certain potential for increasing tariffs,” Hackett said. “In the United States, this is particularly true with the election of Donald Trump but it is not much different in Europe, with the EU calling for tariffs to be applied to a growing number of products from China.”

U.S. ports covered by Global Port Tracker handled 2.29 million Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units – one 20-foot container or its equivalent – in September, although the Ports of New York/New Jersey and Miami have yet to report final data. That was down 1.3% from August but up 12.8% year over year.

Ports have not yet reported October’s numbers, but Global Port Tracker projected the month at 2.13 million TEU, up 3.7% year over year. November is forecast at 2.15 million TEU, up 13.6% year over year, and December at 1.99 million TEU, up 6.1%. That would bring 2024 to 25.3 million TEU, up 13.6% from 2023.

The numbers have not yet been revised to reflect this week’s election results but do take the potential port strike into consideration. October was previously forecast at 2.12 million TEU, November at 1.91 million TEU and December at 1.88 million TEU, and the total for 2024 was previously forecast at 24.9 million TEU.

January 2025 is forecast at 2.01 million TEU, up 2.5% year over year; February at 1.77 million TEU, down 9.3% because of fluctuations in the timing of Lunar New Year shutdowns at Asian factories, and March at 2.01 million TEU, up 4.4%.

Global Port Tracker, which is produced for NRF by Hackett Associates, provides historical data and forecasts for the U.S. ports of Los Angeles/Long Beach, Oakland, Seattle and Tacoma on the West Coast; New York/New Jersey, Port of Virginia, Charleston, Savannah, Port Everglades, Miami and Jacksonville on the East Coast, and Houston on the Gulf Coast. The report is free to NRF retail members, and subscription information is available at NRF.com/PortTracker or by calling (202) 783-7971. Subscription information for non-members can be found at www.globalporttracker.com.

As the leading authority and voice for the retail industry, NRF analyzes economic conditions affecting the industry through reports such as Global Port Tracker.