How the Chinese New Year is impacting global supply chains in 2025

As we kick off 2025, the Chinese New Year (CNY) brings some familiar challenges, but this year, it’s especially interesting given the state of the global economy and trade.

A perfect storm of demand

The Chinese New Year, which falls earlier than usual this year, has already led to a surge in shipments to and from China as businesses prepare for the holiday shutdown. But it’s not just about the holiday rush. The incoming U.S. administration is expected to introduce new tariffs, prompting many companies to bring shipments forward in anticipation of potential disruptions.

In addition, the ongoing boom in e-commerce is pushing air freight demand higher. Many factories close early for the New Year, leading to a surge in requests for accelerated deliveries. In January, airlines canceled numerous flights due to the challenges of operating long-haul routes, which contributed to a reduction in cargo capacity. However, delayed e-commerce shipments, along with the use of charter flights and alternative transportation methods, have softened the upward pressure on air freight rates.

How 2025 looks different from 2024

The combination of Chinese New Year timing, the ongoing e-commerce growth, and frontloading due to the potential tariff changes from the U.S. are all factors making this year stand out. However, the main difference this year is that Chinese New Year comes earlier than usual, having led to an earlier peak in shipments. This shift has had a big impact on the market, causing a surge in demand much sooner. For ocean freight specifically, we’ve avoided a potential dockworker strike on the U.S. East and Gulf Coasts, but early shipments have already been made in anticipation of disruptions. Interestingly, Asia to Latin America trade has been booming, growing by 34% year over year, largely because businesses are shifting strategies to nearshoring in response to U.S. port challenges.

How we’re adapting to the surge

At Rhenus, we have focused on securing space on the busiest routes, using Block Space Agreements and finding alternative route options through our Asian gateways for customers. We’re also using cutting-edge digital tools to track market changes and respond quickly to shifting demand. For ocean freight specifically, we’re staying on top of new schedules from major shipping alliances and working closely with our partner carriers to find the best solutions for our customers during this busy period.

Sustainability: keeping our footprint small, even in busy times

While managing the demand surge, we’re not losing sight of our sustainability goals. We know the environmental impact of shipping is a growing concern, and we’re continuing to offer customers greener options. Our emissions dashboard and tools like RHEGREEN help optimize transport routes, and we’re expanding our sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) options, alongside sustainable sea freight alternatives.

What customers are doing differently this year

Customers are more prepared for this year’s disruptions than ever before. Many have planned shipments earlier than usual to avoid delays, and some have rerouted ocean freight to nearby countries, particularly for U.S. destinations. However, with space limited, some have chosen to wait until after the Chinese New Year to ship. It’s all about balancing the need to move goods quickly with the reality of space limitations and inventory costs.

Looking ahead: flexibility will be key

While the early Chinese New Year rush might be manageable on its own, the added complexity of tariff changes, shifting trade flows, and possible strikes make 2025 much more unpredictable. January has become a critical time for businesses to plan their shipments to avoid disruptions later in the year.

”This year’s early Chinese New Year brings both unique opportunities and challenges for global supply chains, impacting both demand and capacity. The surge in advanced shipments, driven by heightened e-commerce activity and anticipated tariff changes, has placed more pressure on air and ocean freight. While the potential strike on the U.S. East and Gulf Coasts has been averted, it highlights how important it is to always be prepared and flexible in logistics. To help our customers adapt to shifting market conditions and maintain resilient supply chains, we are actively securing capacity and delivering tailored solutions. Our goal is to navigate and overcome these challenges.” Jan Harnisch, CEO of the Air & Ocean Division for the Rhenus Group.