Hedging China EV makers gets pricey with tariffs looming

Traders are preparing for more swings ahead for shares of Chinese electric-car makers as governments around the world plan new tariffs. 

The cost of Li Auto Inc. options traded in Hong Kong is hovering around its highest level since February 2023 relative to the benchmark gauge of the city’s stocks. On BYD Co., three-month implied volatility is elevated after hitting an almost one-year high versus the Hang Seng Index earlier in June, and Geely Automobile Holdings Ltd.’s is at one of its highest readings over the past year against the gauge, data compiled by Bloomberg show. 

Chinese EV makers have been faced with a slew of headwinds recently. After the US said in May it was planning to nearly quadruple tariffs, the European Union this month notified companies including BYD and Geely it will slap levies of as much as 48% on cars shipped from China. While those are now being discussed, Canada has started the process that may lead to new tariffs.

Regulatory risks are a “persistent industry overhang and not only limited to the EU and North America,” Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Joanna Chen said.

Chinese EV stocks have been struggling this year, with Li Auto down more than 50% and Geely up 2.6% — less than the 5.8% gain in the Hang Seng Index. BYD has done better, though, advancing almost 11%.

While BYD options prices are expensive and the number of outstanding puts is at a three-year high relative to calls, traders are paying up for bullish contracts. The cost of three-month calls betting on a 10% gain is near its highest level since November 2021 relative to puts.

And for its part, Li Auto saw a bout of bullish options trading on Friday, with the creation of new call contracts. The stock rebounded on Monday from its lowest price since November 2022.

“We do not think the import levies will derail Chinese EV manufacturers’ expansion plans to export and in the mid term set up factories in Europe,” said Vincent Sun, equity analyst at Morningstar Inc.