Grain FOB prices pushed higher by supply concerns; Soymeal lead the soy complex

Corn

- Global corn FOB prices rallied. South American corn exports were lackluster in October as a result of the currency crisis (Argentina) and strong domestic feed demand (Brazil). Ukraine loadings are slow to ramp up as domestic prices surged with exporters short covering.

- Massive US bean exports led to a significantly higher port capacity utilization in the PNW – causing the shift of US corn exports to the Gulf.

Key Non China Region Soybean Offtakes from the US

Soy 

- US soybean exports to the rest of world since the start of the 20/21 crop year have lagged the 2 year average to EU, Asia and North Africa.

- Lower Argentine soy exports tax has not led to higher exports, as farmers are still holding record bean stocks due to the widening official/blue rate in Peso. Brazilian removal of import duty for soy and corn outside of the Mercosur region has not resulted in imports from the US yet.

- Current Chinese bean buying pace will lead to strategic reserve building, which will lead to auction later in the 20/21 crop year, especially as Brazilian beans are expected to be delayed with tight carry-in.

- China soymeal demand finished Q3 up 17% QoQ and 22% YoY. Crush run rate at 57%-65% was a new high, benefitting from rebounding sow and hog inventories. Smaller softseeds supply YoY such as canola especially with disrupted China-Canada trade is further bullish for soymeal demand.

China Soybean Offtake Tracking (Including Vessels on the Water)

Wheat 

- Market will continue to focus on Northern hemisphere weather. Crops are less than a month away from entering dormancy in key production areas like Russia. A cold front forecast to hit the US plains is further worrisome for US winter wheat with the current dry conditions.

- On the export front, US wheat exports slowed down precipitously, while the southern hemisphere program will start in a month. Black Sea continued to push out record wheat, leading to a surge in domestic wheat price which brought into question the food security. There is more rumor that Russia will restrict wheat exports later in the 20/21 season.

Black Sea Experiences Surge in Wheat Exports on C-Live