Global trade resumes growth in first quarter of 2024

The growth was fueled by positive trade dynamics for the United States and developing countries, and in sectors related to green energy and artificial intelligence.

Global trade trends turned positive in the first quarter of 2024, with the value of trade in goods increasing by around 1% quarter-over-quarter and services by about 1.5%.

Global trade in goods and services have resumed growth in 2024

Quarterly growth in the value of trade, percentage, Q1 2019 – Q1 2024

2019 Q12020 Q12021 Q12022 Q12023 Q12024 Q1−25−20−15−10−50510152025%Services2020 Q36%Services2020 Q36%ServicesGoodsSource: UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD)Note: Data 2024 Q1 is estimate, data for 2024 Q2 is nowcastGet the dataDownload image

According to the latest Global Trade Update released by UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD) on 2 July, the growth was primarily driven by increased exports from China (9%), India (7%) and the US (3%).

Conversely, Europe’s exports showed no growth and Africa’s decreased by 5%.

The report expects the increase to add approximately $250 billion to trade in goods, and $100 billion to services trade, in the first half of 2024 compared to the second half of 2023.

The short-term trade outlook is cautiously optimistic as the global forecasts for GDP growth remain at around 3% for 2024.

The report says that if positive trends persist, global trade in 2024 could reach almost $32 trillion, but unlikely to surpass the record level seen in 2022.

South-South trade sets the pace

Trade in developing countries and South-South trade increased by about 2% in both imports and exports during the first quarter of 2024.

In comparison, developed countries saw flat imports and a modest 1% rise in exports.

South-South trade rose by 2% in the first quarter of 2024. However, its value is still significantly below the levels of 2022, as its four-quarter moving average remains negative at -5%.

Uneven recovery of global trade during first quarter of 2024

Developing and developed trade growth in goods during Q1 2024

Table with 5 columns and 5 rows.

	Quarterly growth		Annual growth
	Imports	Exports	Imports	Exports
Developed countries	0%	+1%	-5%	-3%
Developing countries	+2%	+2%	-3%	-5%
South-south trade	+2%		-5%
Developing countries (excluding East Asia)	+1%	-1%	-3%	-8%
South-south trade (excluding East Asia)	0%		-5%

Source: UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD) estimates based on national statistics.Note: Quarterly growth rates are relative to the previous quarter. Annual growth refers to the last four quarters. Data is seasonally adjusted. Data does not include trade in services.Get the dataDownload image

Green energy and artificial intelligence sectors see strong surge

The report highlights that trade growth varied significantly across sectors, with green energy and artificial intelligence-related products experiencing stronger increases.

The trade value of high-performance servers rose by 25% compared to the first quarter of 2023, while other computers and storage units saw an 8% increase.

The trade value of electric vehicles also grew by about 25% between 2022 and 2023.

Trade in artificial intelligence-related equipment surges in the first quarter of 2024

Trade value of high-performance and other automatic data processing machines, Index 2023 Q1 = 100, Q1 2023 – Q1 2024

2023 Q12023 Q22023 Q32023 Q42024 Q19095100105110115120125130High-performance serversOther computers and storage unitsSource: UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD)Get the dataDownload image

Positive outlook tempered by geopolitical and policy challenges

Despite these positive trends, the outlook for 2024 is tempered by potential geopolitical issues and industrial policy impacts.

The report says that geopolitical tensions, rising shipping costs, and emerging industrial policies could reshape global trade patterns.

Since late 2022, there has been an uptick in the political proximity of trade – for instance so-called “friend-shoring” – favouring countries with similar geopolitical stances.

Although this trend has begun to soften, the report warns that an increasing focus on domestic industries and trade restrictions could hinder international trade growth.

Friendshoring and trade concentration trends continue to shape global trade in Q1 2024

Annual change relative to 2021, per cent, Q1 2022 – Q1 2024

Q12022Q2Q3Q4Q12023Q2Q3Q4Q12024−5−4−3−2−10123456Nearshoring2023 Q2−0.3Nearshoring2023 Q2−0.3NearshoringFriendshoringTrade concentrationSource: UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD) estimates based on national statistics.Note: Quarterly growth rates are relative to the previous quarter. Annual growth refers to the last four quarters. IR denotes intra-regional. Data is seasonally adjusted. Data does not include trade in services. Imports and exports exclude intra-European Union trade.Get the dataDownload image