Global trade is already suffering from war, Kiel Institute says

(Bloomberg)—Nearly all economies are already seeing a drop in international trade tied to disruptions triggered by Russia’s war in Ukraine, according to the Kiel Institute for the World Economy.

The new report Monday from the German think tank shows Russia is being hurt the most by the sanctions—with a projected 11.8% drop in exports in February compared a month earlier.

The U.S. saw a 3.9% decline in shipments abroad, the European Union a 2.8% fall and Germany a 3.8% slide, according to the report. China posted slight growth in exports of 0.3% but that could be impacted going forward by the rapid spread of the omicron variant, it showed.

“The February figures give a taste of the economic consequences of the Ukraine war,” said Vincent Stamer, head of the Kiel Trade Indicator. “Increased customs controls to check compliance with sanctions against Russia may additionally lead to delays in maritime trade.”

In the index, Ukraine is included with other members of the Commonwealth of Independent States excluding Russia. This group had a 4% drop in exports and a 2.3% increase in imports.

“However, position data from container ships show that the Ukraine is largely cut off from international maritime trade,” the report stated. “No large container ship has called at the country’s most important port”—Odesa on the Black Sea, since the invasion began on Feb. 24, it said.

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