FTR’s Trucking Conditions Index for February improves, but the outlook is weaker

FTR’s Trucking Conditions Index reading for February improved to -0.21 from the January reading of -2.56. Improved volume and utilization and smaller increases in fuel costs mostly offset weaker freight rates to produce near-neutral market conditions for carriers in February. The outlook is notably weaker than it was previously, however.

Avery Vise, FTR’s vice president of trucking, commented, “With global tariffs and a full-fledged trade war against China, we have reduced our economic and freight forecasts due to expectations of higher inflation and interest rates and a weaker labor market coupled with a payback from elevated imports in the first quarter to avoid tariffs. With this change, we expect that near-term truck freight market conditions will be more challenging for carriers, postponing a sustained recovery until early next year.”

Details of the February TCI are found in the April issue of FTR’s Trucking Update, published on March 31. Additional commentary in the April issue outlines FTR’s latest update to the data driving its forecasting model. The Trucking Update includes data and analysis on load volumes, the capacity environment, rates, and the economy.

The TCI tracks the changes representing five major conditions in the U.S. truck market. These conditions are: freight volumes, freight rates, fleet capacity, fuel prices, and financing costs. The individual metrics are combined into a single index indicating the industry’s overall health. A positive score represents good, optimistic conditions. Conversely, a negative score represents bad, pessimistic conditions. Readings near zero are consistent with a neutral operating environment, and double-digit readings in either direction suggest significant operating changes are likely.