FTR’s Trucking Conditions Index falls in July but improvement lies ahead

FTR’s Trucking Conditions Index for July fell to a -5.59 reading from +0.95 in June as freight rates were the least favorable for trucking companies since April and most other factors were weaker than they had been in June. FTR still expects overall trucking conditions to turn consistently favorable for carriers by early 2025 and for the TCI to see a mix of positive and negative readings in the interim.

Avery Vise, FTR’s vice president of trucking, commented, “Carriers surely are tired of the ‘prosperity is just around the corner’ message, but the freight market distortions of the past four years still are resolving. Although the latest employment data suggests that larger trucking operations have largely rightsized, the market still has far more very small carriers than it did before the pandemic. Our data indicates that a recovery in freight volume and utilization is already underway but is frustratingly gradual for carriers. While the Federal Reserve’s easing of interest rates certainly will help, the effects will not be instantaneous.”

Details of the July TCI are found in the September issue of FTR’s Trucking Update, published on August 30. Additional commentary looks further into how the continued sluggishness in the industrial sector has constrained FTR’s freight forecast for both 2024 and 2025. The Trucking Update includes data and analysis on load volumes, the capacity environment, rates, and the economy.

The TCI tracks the changes representing five major conditions in the U.S. truck market. These conditions are: freight volumes, freight rates, fleet capacity, fuel prices, and financing costs. The individual metrics are combined into a single index indicating the industry’s overall health. A positive score represents good, optimistic conditions. Conversely, a negative score represents bad, pessimistic conditions. Readings near zero are consistent with a neutral operating environment, and double-digit readings in either direction suggest significant operating changes are likely.

To access charts suitable to accompany this press release: https://www.ftrintel.com/trucking-conditions-index

In addition to the monthly updates on trucking conditions, FTR offers a weekly Trucking Market Update on the State of Freight Podcast. The weekly update, hosted by Avery Vise, covers spot market and economic indicators and major industry developments. Listen to recent episodes and download the accompanying graphics for the latest episode.