FTR’s Shippers Conditions Index softens in June as the freight market becomes more balanced

FTR’s Shippers Conditions Index for June fell to 0.3 from the May reading of 4.5 as moderating fuel costs kept the index out of marginally negative territory. Freight-related factors deteriorated slightly during the month. FTR’s SCI forecast is for a prolonged phase of near-neutral readings, indicating a mostly balanced freight market between shippers and carriers.

Avery Vise, FTR’s vice president of trucking, commented, “The days of consistently favorable freight market conditions for shippers are over, but the market does not really look tough for them, either. Over the forecast horizon, we do not expect the market to be even remotely as challenging as the one that shippers endured from late 2020 through mid-2022, and shippers might even fare better than they anticipate. The biggest wild card in the near term probably is the cost of fuel.”

The August FTR’s Shippers Update, published August 7, provides a detailed analysis of the factors affecting the June Shippers Conditions Index and provides the forecast for this index through June 2025. Additional commentary in the August issue discusses how a work stoppage at Canadian railroads would affect North American rail carload and intermodal volumes.

The Shippers Conditions Index tracks the changes representing four major conditions in the U.S. full-load freight market. These conditions are freight demand, freight rates, fleet capacity, and fuel price. The individual metrics are combined into a single index that tracks the market conditions that influence the shippers’ freight transport environment. A positive score represents good, optimistic conditions. A negative score represents bad, pessimistic conditions. The index summarizes the industry’s health at a glance.