FTR’s Shippers Conditions Index near neutral in February at -0.3, but changes are coming

FTR’s Shippers Conditions Index declined in February to -0.3 from January’s 0.6 reading, maintaining the near-neutral environment. Tighter capacity and slightly stronger freight volume more than offset lower fuel costs and weaker freight rates during the month. Shippers likely will see tougher market conditions in the second quarter, but the outlook generally is more favorable for shippers than it was in our prior forecast.

Avery Vise, FTR’s vice president of trucking, commented, “The strong freight activity due mostly to the surge in imports to minimize tariff impacts has peaked, and we expect a much weaker freight environment by early summer. Shippers’ own volumes likely will suffer, but a silver lining – at least for traffic managers – is that freight market conditions in the second half should be better than what we had expected before we adjusted our economic and freight market forecasts to reflect the impact of tariffs. The outlook beyond 2025 is less clear as the longer-term effects of tariffs and potential for resolution of trade disputes are up in the air.”

The April FTR’s Shippers Update, published April 7, includes commentary outlining FTR’s latest update to the data driving its forecasting model.

The Shippers Conditions Index tracks the changes representing four major conditions in the U.S. full-load freight market. These conditions are freight demand, freight rates, fleet capacity, and fuel price. The individual metrics are combined into a single index that tracks the market conditions that influence the shippers’ freight transport environment. A positive score represents good, optimistic conditions. A negative score represents bad, pessimistic conditions. The index summarizes the industry’s health at a glance.

The 2025 FTR Transportation Conference will be held from September 8-11 in Indianapolis with four days of expert-driven insights, trusted forecasts, and actionable strategies that help industry participants anticipate shifts and make smarter decisions. Join hundreds of industry leaders in this opportunity to gain clarity, confidence, and a competitive edge amid ongoing economic uncertainty. Learn more and register at ftrconference.com.