FTR’s Shippers Conditions Index improves in May but likely will soften soon

FTR’s Shippers Conditions Index for May improved to 4.5 from April’s 3.0 reading. Falling diesel prices bolstered a favorable rate environment for shippers while other factors were only marginally favorable and mostly stable month over month. FTR forecasts that the index will move closer to neutral territory and then turn slightly negative by late this year as key freight dynamics – volume, utilization, and rates – start to become at least occasionally unfavorable for shippers.

Avery Vise, FTR’s vice president of trucking, commented, “May was almost a repeat of April aside from fuel costs. Freight rates were the most favorable for shippers they had been in a year, but we expect them to return to the softer climate seen during the first quarter. Our outlook for freight volume has strengthened a bit, putting at least some upward pressure on both capacity utilization and rates. However, shippers likely will see conditions that are more accurately characterized as neutral rather than negative. Ample capacity in trucking continues to discipline the freight market.”

The July FTR’s Shippers Update, published July 5, provides a detailed analysis of the factors affecting the May Shippers Conditions Index and provides the forecast for this index through May 2025. Additional commentary in the July edition discusses how the growing production of computer and electronic products compares to the otherwise sluggish U.S. manufacturing output.

The Shippers Conditions Index tracks the changes representing four major conditions in the U.S. full-load freight market. These conditions are freight demand, freight rates, fleet capacity, and fuel price. The individual metrics are combined into a single index that tracks the market conditions that influence the shippers’ freight transport environment. A positive score represents good, optimistic conditions. A negative score represents bad, pessimistic conditions. The index tells summarizes the industry’s health at a glance.