FTR’s Shippers Conditions Index held close to neutral territory in May at -0.9

FTR’s Shippers Conditions Index once again held close to neutral territory, declining to -0.9 in May from the -0.6 reading in April. The SCI has remained between +1 and -1 for five months.

Avery Vise, FTR’s vice president of trucking, commented, “The freight market was slightly weaker for shippers in May than the SCI might imply because falling diesel prices offset mildly unfavorable capacity utilization and freight rates. We expect more negative readings in the near term – in part due to higher fuel costs – but the outlook is more favorable for shippers by late this year. Our forecast doesn’t envision a consistently unfavorable freight market for shippers until 2027, but uncertainty is high concerning both the strength of freight volume and the degree of capacity utilization. Volatility will be the norm for a while.”

The July FTR’s Shippers Update, published July 7, also discusses how rising insurance premiums could be a catalyst for a capacity shakeout, as the increased cost for small carriers may force them to leave the market.

The Shippers Conditions Index tracks the changes representing four major conditions in the U.S. full-load freight market. These conditions are freight demand, freight rates, fleet capacity, and fuel price. The individual metrics are combined into a single index that tracks the market conditions that influence the shippers’ freight transport environment. A positive score represents good, optimistic conditions. A negative score represents bad, pessimistic conditions. The index summarizes the industry’s health at a glance.

The 2025 FTR Transportation Conference will be held from September 8-11 in Indianapolis, including full days on September 9-10 dedicated to forecasts and discussions concerning the truck freight and rail freight markets.