FTR’s Shippers Conditions Index for November falls to -2.9

FTR Shippers Conditions Index reflected a more challenging environment for shippers in November, falling to -2.9 from near-neutral 0.3 in October. Higher rates, tighter capacity, and a brief period of higher fuel costs all contributed to the sooner-than-expected weaker market conditions. In the near term, falling diesel prices are softening the impact of deteriorating freight market dynamics for shippers.

Avery Vise, FTR’s vice president of trucking, commented, “We have been forecasting a freight market shift in 2026 that would be mildly unfavorable for shippers, and trends and data over just the last month offer greater confidence in that outlook. Van spot rates in trucking were notable stronger than seasonal expectations in December. Even if that strength proves temporary, it indicates tighter overall capacity. Preliminary employment data also points to lower capacity in trucking than current figures indicate. One positive situation for shippers is that diesel prices are near four-year lows, but most other key factors suggest a tougher market in the coming months.”

The January FTR’s Shippers Update, published on January 7, includes a discussion of the current trucking capacity situation and factors that could affect it in 2026.

The Shippers Conditions Index tracks the changes representing four major conditions in the U.S. full-load freight market. These conditions are freight demand, freight rates, fleet capacity, and fuel price. The individual metrics are combined into a single index that tracks the market conditions that influence the shippers’ freight transport environment. A positive score represents good, optimistic conditions. A negative score represents bad, pessimistic conditions. The index summarizes the industry’s health at a glance.