FTR reports preliminary North American Class 8 net orders for November at 33,500 units

FTR reported that preliminary North American Class 8 net orders for November totaled 33,500 units, reflecting a 12% increase month-over-month (m/m) but a 7% decrease year-over-year (y/y). While down y/y, orders were still above seasonal expectations as the average November order level over the past seven years is 30,393 units. Despite ongoing stagnation in the truck freight market, net orders in September through November 2024 were 1% higher than the same period in 2023, signaling slight positive momentum for the 2025 order season.

Year-to-date (YTD) order performance has slightly surpassed replacement demand levels, averaging 22,473 net orders per month. As of November 2024, YTD net orders were up 9% y/y. North American Class 8 orders have now totaled 273,143 units for the last 12 months.

OEMs experienced relatively consistent m/m growth in total market demand in November. The on-highway market saw a significant increase in demand that offset and overshadowed the decline in the overall vocational sector.

Dan Moyer, senior analyst, commercial vehicles, commented, “Despite a sluggish freight market, fleets have continued to invest in new equipment, mainly at replacement demand levels so far in 2024. We expect a modest rise in November backlogs once the final Class 8 market data is released later this month.

“Meanwhile, the election potentially could begin affecting the commercial vehicle market in the near term. The solid m/m increase in net orders might reflect some fleets choosing to place orders following the conclusion of the November U.S. elections, but the election impact might not end there. On November 25, President-elect Donald Trump announced plans to impose tariffs as one of his first executive orders, proposing a 25% tariff on all imports from Mexico and Canada and an additional 10% tariff on Chinese goods. More than 40% of Class 8 trucks built for the U.S. market currently are built in Mexico.

“The announcement presents challenges for the commercial vehicle industry already grappling with preparations for 2027 U.S. EPA NOx regulations, further straining supply chains and costs. While the late-November announcement likely had minimal impact on orders for the month, orders over the next month or so could see a boost as fleets aim to preempt potential tariffs. If tariffs take effect in 2025Q1, OEMs may struggle to quickly ramp up production beforehand due to labor and supply chain constraints, especially during the slow production months of December to February. High Class 8 inventory levels could partially meet any surge in retail demand.”

Preliminary orders may be estimated and are subject to revision when FTR releases final data mid-month as part of its North American Commercial Truck & Trailer Outlook service.