FTR Reports October U.S. Trailer Net Orders at 15,970 units below expectations

U.S. trailer net orders in October rose 34% month-over-month (m/m) to 15,970 units, reflecting typical seasonal trends, but were down 55% year-over-year (y/y). This result marks the lowest October net order total since FTR’s trailer data tracking began in 2013. Despite the opening of 2025 order boards, net orders remain well below expectations, struggling to build momentum.

The challenging truck freight environment continues to weigh on U.S. trailer demand. Trailer net orders for the year to date (YTD) fell 36% y/y to 108,977 units, an average of just 10,898 units per month. Total trailer build rose 8% m/m in October to 16,603 units, aligning with typical seasonal patterns, but was down 38% y/y. This output is 34% below the five-year average for October and marks the second-lowest monthly production level since August 2020.

In October, total trailer net orders were slightly below total production, reducing backlogs by 1,017 units to 82,089 units. Higher m/m production and lower backlogs pulled the backlog/build ratio down to 4.9 months, the lowest since June 2020 and about a month below the pre-2020 average. This result indicates mounting pressure on OEMs to scale back production in the near term.

Dan Moyer, senior analyst, commercial vehicles, commented, “With the launch of the 2025 order season, North American Class 8 net orders increased 6% y/y in September-October 2024 while U.S. trailer net orders dropped by 58% y/y during the same period. The steep decline in trailer demand is largely due to fleets prioritizing investments in new power units over trailers, likely influenced by reduced profitability or shifts in trade cycles. Some fleets might also have been postponing trailer orders until after the November elections or in hopes of lower trailer prices. Slightly elevated trailer inventories, reduced fleet spending, and shrinking backlogs are expected to pressure trailer production levels through the rest of 2024. If 2025 trailer orders fail to rebound soon, some OEMs may need to extend or deepen production cuts into next year.”