Forwarder profitability risks in 2026: 92% of forwarders expect margins to tighten

Freight forwarders worldwide are bracing for another year of margin pressure in 2026, according to new analysis released by OntegosCloud.

The findings reflect a market entering a prolonged period of structural headwinds. Container rates have fallen sharply across several trade lanes, vessel capacity continues to expand, and global demand remains soft, limiting pricing power and intensifying pressure on forwarder profitability.

OntegosCloud, the margin-first operating system for freight forwarders, surveyed forwarders across Asia, Europe, the Middle East and the Americas, combining sentiment data with operational insights from thousands of files processed through its platform. The analysis identified five risks most likely to erode profits in 2026, highlighting both external market pressures and critical internal blind spots.

“Forwarders are heading into 2026 with commercial drag coming from every direction, softening rates, unpredictable surcharges and ongoing geopolitical disruption,” said Oliver Gritz, Co-Founder of OntegosCloud. “What this analysis shows, however, is that the biggest threat to profitability is not just external volatility, but what forwarders fail to see and control inside their own operations.”

Five risks set to define forwarder profitability in 2026

The first risk highlighted was margin compression driven by sustained low or normalised freight rates, with those surveyed overwhelmingly expecting yield pressure to continue as overcapacity and soft demand persist. In fact, 92% of respondents said they anticipate returns to tighten further in 2026.

Respondents also pointed to pricing swings emanating from liner General Rate Increases (GRI), surcharges and contract pricing, with ongoing Suez and Red Sea uncertainty reshaping routing and cost structures. Nearly 63% of those surveyed said surcharge volatility is likely to be their most disruptive external risk next year.

A third major concern was geopolitical risk and the likelihood of congestion cycles, with carriers cautioning that even a full reopening of the Suez Canal could trigger congestion waves. Fuel and insurance costs remain unpredictable across Middle Eastern and Indian Ocean corridors, and 54% of forwarders said geopolitical instability will directly affect their operating costs in 2026.

The fourth risk identified was softening demand in the US and Europe, where import volumes are uncertain as consumer spending slows. Here, 52% of respondents said weakening demand in major consumer markets will affect their volumes and pricing power.

Preventable leakage emerges as the critical internal risk

Finally, respondents expressed growing concern about financial leakage linked to analogue workflows and fragmented operating models. They cited missed surcharges, delayed billing and inaccurate cost capture as persistent issues. OntegosCloud’s platform analysis shows that 74% of forwarders believe manual invoicing and data-entry processes are responsible for the majority of preventable leakage, with non-automated files experiencing significantly more leakage than automated ones.

“Forwarders are entering 2026 with a tighter profit environment,” said Gritz. “Rates are normalising, demand is uneven and geopolitical disruptions will continue to distort cost structures. The companies that succeed will be those that turn margin management into a real-time capability, moving from reactive decision-making to proactive profitability control.”

He added, “The biggest blind spot we see is preventable leakage in the form of missed surcharges, delayed billing and poor cost capture. In a year where freight rates will likely be bearish, this is no longer an operational nuisance, it is a strategic threat. Eliminating leakage is now one of the fastest ways forwarders can protect Return On Capital Employed (ROCE) and cashflow.”

The analysis notes that major carriers have signalled similar concerns for 2026, pointing to ongoing overcapacity across key trade lanes, volatile surcharge cycles linked to routing changes, slowing demand in major consumer markets and unpredictable bunker and insurance costs driven by geopolitical risk. These conditions, OntegosCloud concludes, mean forwarders can no longer rely on market recovery alone to stabilise returns.

Gritz said, “2026 will reward margin makers, not market takers. Forwarders that continue to run with manual workflows, fragmented data and delayed visibility will feel every shock in the market. Those who digitise core processes, enforce clean data and manage profitability at the shipment level will outperform regardless of how volatile the market becomes. The opportunity is huge. With modern margin-intelligence systems, forwarders can achieve world-class profitability levels again.”

Three priorities for forwarders in 2026

OntegosCloud’s analysis recommends three immediate priorities for forwarders in 2026:

1. Real-time margin intelligence

Lane-level profitability, automated cost capture, and margin alerts responsive to GRIs and routing changes.

2. Automated document and invoicing pipelines

Cut billing cycles by 50–70% and eliminate preventable leakage from manual exceptions.

3. Scenario modelling for geopolitical disruptions

Instant simulations across Suez/Cape routes, fuel and insurance changes, and GRI impacts—enabling faster, more accurate customer responses.