Fertilizer markets suffer from Arabian Gulf conflict | Signal Market Insights

Iran–USA/Israel conflict impact on fertilizer supply chains and global agriculture.

THE SIGNAL OCEAN PLATFORM — WAYPOINTS STRAIT OF HORMUZ

FERTILIZER FLOWS

The Arabian Gulf's Central Role in Global Supply

The Arabian Gulf is one of the most important regions for global fertilizer production and trade. Countries including Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Oman, and the United Arab Emirates host major facilities producing key inputs such as urea, sulphur, and ammonia. Iran is also a notable producer of ammonia, an essential component used in nitrogen-based fertilizers.

Signal Ocean recorded that 20% of all fertilizer flows originated from the Arabian Gulf in 2025. This proportionality increases to 46% when considering only urea, the most widely used nitrogen fertilizer globally.

As a result, with the Iran–US/Israel conflict effectively closing the Strait of Hormuz, the market could lose between 3–4mt of fertilizer a month, with India and China — the two most populated countries in the world — being the most exposed.

THE SIGNAL OCEAN PLATFORM — FERTILIZER FLOWS FROM THE ARABIAN GULF

EXPOSURE OF MAJOR IMPORTERS

India and China Most at Risk

India and China are most exposed to limited fertilizer flows from the Arabian Gulf, as the region accounts for 23% and 20% of all fertilizer imports, respectively.

THE SIGNAL OCEAN PLATFORM — FERTILIZER FLOWS TO INDIA & CHINA

POTENTIAL AGRICULTURAL EFFECTS

Reduced Fertilizer Flows — What Happens Next

A reduced flow of fertilizer from the Arabian Gulf will have substantial knock-on effects for agricultural yields in the coming year. Farmers typically respond through a chain of mitigation measures.

Lower fertilizer application

Producers use less fertilizer than usual. While most apply more than strictly needed as an insurance policy, reduced application makes crops less robust against challenging weather such as drought or intense heat — likely leading to smaller yields, with weather conditions acting as the swing factor.

Shifts in crop selection

Farmers switch to crops that require less nitrogen, opting for legumes such as soybeans rather than corn. This creates surpluses of certain crops and shortages of others. Corn is nitrogen-intensive; if enough producers shift away from it, animal feed prices rise, impacting the cost of meat and farmed fish.

Reduced planting on marginal land

Farmers reduce planting in less profitable marginal areas that require more fertilizer input. Individually this improves return per acre, but the compounding effect of many farmers following this approach leads to a global decrease in yields and upward pressure on food prices.