European gas prices fluctuate with focus on LNG imports, Russia

European natural gas prices fluctuated as the market weighed uneven supplies, a forecast for cooler weather and uncertainty over payments for the fuel from Russia. 

Benchmark futures were little changed after earlier dropping as much as 3.6% to 89.53 euros per megawatt-hour, the lowest level in a week. 

Northwest Europe’s imports of liquefied natural gas are on course to match the record levels seen in January, with at least a dozen new cargoes expected by the end of April. 

Still, pipeline supplies remain muted. Shipments from Norway are about 10% lower than last month’s average due to maintenance, according to nominations from operator Gassco AS. 

And flows from via Ukraine from Russia—the continent’s largest supplier—are far below levels seen earlier in April. Russia’s Yamal-Europe link continues to ship gas from Germany to Poland, the reverse of its normal direction. 

President Vladimir Putin has demanded payment in rubles from “unfriendly” buyers, warning that gas flows could be cut if the payment terms aren’t met. The EU has said the mechanism violates existing sanctions and suggested that companies can keep paying for gas in euros.  

Weather Outlook

Low wind-power output is expected in parts of Europe this week and next, the Weather Co. said in a report. That could boost the need for gas for electricity. U.K. gas power generation was at 60% of the nation’s total by 8 a.m. local time, while wind output was at 8%, according to grid data.

Below-average temperatures are expected across most of Europe next week, with milder weather limited to most of the western region, Maxar said in a daily report. 

Benchmark futures traded 0.1% lower at 92.75 euros per megawatt-hour by 2:28 p.m. in Amsterdam. The contract has declined about 25% so far this month. The U.K. equivalent slipped 0.9%.