European gas gyrates wildly as traders weigh sanction risk

European natural gas prices whipsawed on Thursday, soaring to an all-time high and then erasing those gains just as quickly. 

Benchmark Dutch futures declined 1.9% to 162.42 euros a megawatt-hour by 1:16 p.m. in Amsterdam, after nearly climbing to 200 euros for the first time on record. The U.K. equivalent fell 1.7%.

The price swing occurs against the backdrop of already inflated energy prices, due to historically low gas inventories in Europe. The war in Ukraine and related sanctions targeting Moscow have upended commodities markets, with the world in the grip of inflation amid the recovery from the pandemic.

On an intraday level, European gas futures have traded within a range of about 100 euros this week. Such high prices will have triggered many so-called stops when a sell order is issued automatically after a price threshold is reached. These are used to take profit from a trading position and to limit future losses.

“This volatility is unprecedented,” said Kaushal Ramesh, a senior analyst at Rystad Energy. “Within the TTF market, there’s probably some level of profit-taking once that’s very high and it has an impact on sentiment,” he added, referring to the Dutch benchmark.

War, Sanctions

Russian forces fired missiles at Kyiv overnight and stepped up their campaign to take cities in the coastal south. Officials from Russia and Ukraine were due to hold a second round of talks on Thursday. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken is meanwhile traveling to NATO member states neighboring Ukraine.

While the penalties on Russia aren’t specifically targeting natural resources, traders and shippers are shying away from dealing with Russian suppliers, including Gazprom PJSC’s energy-trading arm. 

Still, Russian gas continues to flow through pipelines to Europe, including those transiting Ukraine, even increasing since the invasion last week. 

Supplies through a key pipeline to Slovakia’s Velke Kapusany station remain high and Gazprom booked some pipeline capacity for Thursday to send gas to the Mallnow station in Germany. Gazprom said it’s shipping the fuel to Europe via Ukraine in line with clients’ requests.

Europe has imported more liquefied natural gas than usual this year. While LNG imports could help reduce the continent’s reliance on Russian gas, European buyers will be in competition with those in Asia also starting to replenish their stocks over the summer.