EIA expects combined U.S. solar and wind electricity generation to surpass coal-fired generation in 2024

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects, for the first year on record, combined electricity generation from wind and solar to surpass generation from coal in 2024. EIA expects solar generation in 2024 to increase 39% (228 kilowatthours) from 2023, driven by continued increases in solar capacity. “Renewables, particularly solar photovoltaics, are growing rapidly and making large contributions to electricity generation," DeCarolis said.

EIA expects natural gas prices to be $2.77 per million British thermal units this winter, about 23% lower than previously forecast. The winter season is off to a warmer-than-expected start, so U.S. households are consuming less natural gas for heat than expected. The lower natural gas consumption is also contributing to rising U.S. natural gas inventories, which typically results in lower prices. “We’re seeing record domestic natural gas production paired with lower-than-expected natural gas demand, and we expect that is going to push prices lower this winter season,” DeCarolis said.

EIA will publish its next STEO on January 9, 2024, including the agency’s first forecasts for the energy sector through 2025.