Dry Weekly Market Monitor - Week 04.2025

Chart of the Week: Panamax Market (ECSA Ballasters & Demand)

This week's highlight explores the evolving dynamics of Panamax ballasters in the ECSA, focusing on daily loading volumes compared to those of the Supramax segment.

As January draws to a close, the Capesize Brazil–North China freight market maintains a relatively stable sentiment. Although highs have yet to be achieved, the market remains steady. In contrast, the Panamax Continent–Far East route shows weaker sentiment, weighed down by an oversupply of tonnage that continues to depress freight rates. Shifting focus to the ECSA market for the Panamax vessel size category, there has been a notable surge in the number of ballasters. Meanwhile, the P6 route has plummeted to record lows, revisiting the bottom levels seen in mid-February 2023.

As the month progresses, the iron ore market is showing signs of recovery. Iron ore prices for cargoes with 62% iron content surged above $101 per ton in mid-January, reaching a two-week high. This rise reflects market optimism fueled by potential stimulus measures from Beijing. China’s Ministry of Commerce has announced plans to bolster consumption, stabilize foreign trade, and promote investment throughout the year, further lifting market sentiment.
On the geopolitical front, international trade dynamics remain uncertain. While the US administration under President Donald Trump refrained from imposing new tariffs on its first day, directives have been issued to investigate and address ongoing trade deficits. Furthermore, there are looming threats of tariffs targeting Mexico, Canada, China, and the EU, stemming from various trade-related concerns. These developments could have implications for global trade flows and market sentiment in the coming months.

For more information on this week's freight, supply and demand shipping trends, see the analysis sections below. You can also log in to our Newsroom page under Insights & News to stay updated with the latest reports.

SECTION 1/ FREIGHT - Freight Rates ($/t) Mixed

‘The Big Picture’ - Capesize and Panamax Bulkers and Smaller Ship Sizes

The dry bulk freight market continued a mixed momentum from the previous weeks of January, with a notable decline in Panamax rates from the Continent to the Far East.

• Capesize vessel freight rates for shipments from Brazil to North China have stabilized at $18 per ton, marking an 8% increase month-on-month. However, on an annual basis, rates remain 20% lower.
• Panamax vessel freight rates from the Continent to the Far East dropped below $320 per ton, showing a 25% decline compared to the same period last year.
• Supramax vessel freight rates on the Indo-ECI route dropped below $7 per ton, reflecting a monthly decrease of 18%.
• Handysize freight rates for the NOPAC Far East route have fallen to $27 per ton, representing an 8% month-on-month decline. The downward trend has persisted into the final days of January.

SECTION 2/ SUPPLY - Ballasters (# vessels)

Increasing
Supply Trend Lines for Key Load Areas

In the final days of January, the market has experienced an increase in the number of ballasters, though Capesize levels remain close to the annual average.

• Capesize SE Africa: The number of vessels remained nearly above the annual average of 104, while it remains to be seen if there will be a spike before the end of month.
• Panamax SE Africa: The second half of the month witnessed an uptick, with levels exceeding 190, reversing the declining trend observed throughout November and December of the previous year.
• Supramax SE Asia: There has been a significant increase, with numbers consistently trending above the annual average of 100, recovering from the record lows observed at the beginning of the month.
• Handysize NOPAC: An upward trend above the annual average has persisted throughout the month, with levels approaching 100.

SECTION 3/ DEMAND - Tonne Days Decreasing Summary of Dry Bulk Demand, per Ship Size

At the second half of January, dry tonne-day growth showed a decreasing trend across all dry vessel size categories, amid indications of a firmer momentum at the end of the fourth quarter of the previous year.

• Capesize: A decline has been observed over the past two weeks; however, the current growth rate has not yet dropped to the lows recorded in week 42 of the previous year.
• Panamax: January failed to show signs of a recovery, with tonne-day growth declining to one of its lowest levels since the end of week 34 of the previous year.
• Supramax: Despite the recent decline, the growth rate appears to maintain stronger momentum compared to other vessel size categories.
• Handysize: The Handysize vessel segment extended the downward trend observed in previous weeks throughout January, with signs of further slowdown toward the month's end.

SECTION 4/ PORT CONGESTION - No of Vessels Decreasing

Dry bulk ships congested at Chinese ports

Congestion at Chinese dry bulk ports has continued to decline in January, with decreasing trends observed across the Capesize, Panamax, and Supramax vessel segments.

• Capesize: Capesize vessel congestion stood 109, 13 lower than the previous week.
• Panamax: The number of Panamax vessels dropped below 200, reflecting a surprising decrease of 49 compared to the figures recorded during the second week of January.
• Supramax: Congestion levels dropped below 290 vessels, almost 10 lower compared to the figures recorded during the second week of January.
• Handysize: Congestion levels increased to 200, up by 10 compared to the previous week. It remains uncertain whether this trend will exceed the 200 mark.