Fleet readiness surges ahead of fuel supply - green transition at a tipping point

New insights from DNV’s Maritime Forecast to 2050 show that shipping’s energy transition is entering a new phase: One defined by strategic investment, accelerating fleet readiness, and emerging regulatory developments. With the IMO’s Net-Zero Framework (NZF) approved but pending adoption in October, and the number of alternative-fuel-capable vessels in operation set to almost double by 2028*, shipowners are shifting from preparation to action.

By 2030, the alternative-fueled fleet will be able to burn up to 50 million tons of oil equivalent (Mtoe) of low-greenhouse gas (GHG) fuels annually, double the estimated volume needed to meet the International Maritime Organization’s (IMO) 2030 emissions target. Yet today, actual consumption of low-GHG fuels remains at just 1 Mtoe. This widening gap between capacity and use highlights both the scale of industry commitment and the urgent need for fuel producers and infrastructure developers to accelerate supply to match the fleet’s readiness.

“The stage is set for the next phase of the maritime energy transition,” said Knut Ørbeck-Nilssen, CEO of DNV Maritime. “The IMO’s Net-Zero Framework has imperfections and greater clarity is urgently needed around how the collected money will be spent. It is already influencing investment decisions, operational choices and fuel strategies across the industry. Shipowners will adjust their strategic priorities pending the October IMO meeting, which will lay the foundation for the years and decades ahead.”

The ninth edition of DNV’s Maritime Forecast to 2050 provides a comprehensive analysis of the fuels, technologies, and regulations shaping the future of shipping, assisting decision-makers in navigating the next phase of the energy transition.

The report outlines several solutions that could help bridge the gap between fleet readiness and fuel availability:

• Leveraging existing fuel infrastructure for low-GHG fuels, like biodiesel and bio-LNG, combined with the adoption of flexible chains of custody models can significantly ease access to these fuels, incentivizing and accelerating both production and uptake.
• Energy-efficiency measures on newbuilds are increasingly deployed, reducing emissions immediately without requiring new infrastructure or supply-chain development.
• Onboard carbon capture (OCC) is gaining traction, particularly for large vessels with available onboard space. Modelling from the report shows that equipping 20 major ports with CO2 offloading infrastructure could enable the removal of up to 75 million tons of captured CO2 annually, potentially offsetting the need for 25 Mtoe of low-GHG fuels, as much as is needed to reach the IMO’s 2030 base target
• 2025 could be a breakthrough year for maritime wind energy. Wind-assisted propulsion systems (WAPS) are gaining broader commercial adoption, with claims of 5-20% reduction in fuel use for certain ships, according to vessel owners, operators and technology makers.

“The industry has made real technical progress in recent years,” said Eirik Ovrum, Lead Author of the report. “But these solutions are still operating in silos. To deliver impact, they need to be integrated into fleet strategies, supported by infrastructure, and recognized in compliance frameworks. That’s where the next phase of work must focus.”

This year’s Maritime Forecast to 2050 report urges stakeholders to prepare early and evaluate all cost-effective pathways, recognizing that compliance strategies will vary by vessel type, operational profile, and regulatory exposure.