Descartes Global Shipping Report: Growth in Mexico’s exports to U.S. and the rising importance of Chinese goods supporting it

Descartes Systems Group, the global leader in uniting logistics-intensive businesses in commerce, released a study that evaluates how the market share of top imports from Mexico into the U.S. has changed over the last seven years. It compares Mexico to other leading countries of origin (CoO) and looks at how Chinese imports into Mexico are supporting Mexico’s growth as a top CoO for the U.S. So, where has Mexico increased its share of U.S. imports and to what degree are Chinese goods part of this trade shift? The study Descartes Global Shipping Report: Growth in Mexico’s Exports to U.S. and the Rising Importance of Chinese Goods Supporting It investigates top import commodity groups, CoOs and exports from China to Mexico to provide insight into shifting trading patterns.

“Mexico has moved to the forefront of U.S. global sourcing conversations since the previous administration began implementing tariffs on China and pandemic-induced trade flow disruptions. Chinese goods are following this shift in trade flows that is increasingly coming from Mexico into the U.S.,” said Chris Jones, EVP Industry at Descartes. “The analysis shows that Mexico exports to the U.S. grew 54% over the last seven years; however, Chinese exports to Mexico increased by 134% in the same period while the Mexican economy only grew 3.4%1.”

To help importers understand the shifting trade landscape, Descartes analyzed the top 10 two-digit commodity categories (HS-2 digits) and their top 10 CoOs over the period of 2016–2022 to see where U.S. imports from Mexico are growing and where Mexico is—or isn’t—gaining market share as a top CoO. In addition, the report compares those top U.S import commodities to their equivalent Chinese exports to Mexico.

For example, for HS-85 goods (Electric Machinery, Sound Equipment, TVs, etc.), Mexico was the third largest provider (18%) in 2022 (see Figure 1) in terms of value to the U.S. Over a seven-year horizon (2016–2022), the total value of goods from Mexico increased 28% and the greatest percentage growth was in 2021 and 2022 (combined 30%). The value of U.S. maritime imports, however, increased 35% in the same seven-year period. This would imply that Mexico lost import market share over the last seven years. Chinese exports for HS-85 grew 171% in the same period.

Figure 1: Top 10 CoO Analysis for HS-85