DAT One and DAT iQ rates & ratios

Spot rates jumped as weather and holiday freight push demand for trucks

At 3.0 million, load posts on DAT One were 10% lower than the previous week but still the second-highest weekly total this year. The number of truck posts rose 3% to 256,617 on greater dry van availability. The combination of winter weather across much of the country and the repositioning of groceries and retail goods for the holidays increased demand for trucks and pushed spot rates higher.

Attached: Weekly average linehaul rates from DAT iQ and load-to-truck ratios from DAT One

Broker-to-carrier 7-day average spot rates:

▲ Dry van: $2.26 per mile, up 8 cents week over week

▲ Refrigerated: $2.57 per mile, up 2 cents

▲ Flatbed: $2.44 per mile, up 2 cents

Dry van

▼ Van loads: 1.5 million, down 9% week over week

▲ Van equipment: 180,967, up 5%

▲ Linehaul rate: $1.89 per mile, up 8 cents

Reefer

▼ Reefer loads: 686,774, down 16% week over week

▼ Reefer equipment: 46,673, down 1%

▲ Linehaul rate: $2.21 per mile, up 3 cents

Flatbed

▼ Flatbed loads: 772,879, down 7% week over week

▼ Flatbed equipment: 28,977, down 2%

▲ Linehaul rate: $2.07 per mile, up 2 cents

U.S. National Average Diesel Price (Source: EIA)

▼ $3.61 per gallon, down 6 cents week over week (ending Dec. 15). ▲ 12 cents YOY

Analysis from Dean Croke, Industry Analyst, DAT Freight & Analytics

Dry van spot rates surged as winter storms made travel difficult and pushed freight to brokers and the DAT One load board. The national average weekly van spot rate has increased by 13% over the past month, climbing about 7 cents per mile each of the last three weeks.

Spot rates for Week 50 were the highest outside of the pandemic years (2020-2021) across all three major equipment types, highlighting how quickly short-term shocks can strain an already fragile capacity environment.

Looking ahead, DAT Ratecast predicts the national average weekly van spot rate to increase by another 20 cents per mile by New Year’s. This would represent a 25% rise in spot rates from early November through year-end, assuming no severe weather and a typical late-December capacity crunch as carriers take time off.

The question is whether recent rate increases indicate a lasting shift or a temporary “sugar rush” caused by weather and the calendar. For now, the signs point to the latter. Carrier exits, bankruptcies, and stricter roadside enforcement are shrinking capacity at the edges, but not enough yet to create sustained, demand-driven pricing power for carriers.