Coal’s dramatic rally can continue into 2023, producer says

Disruption to global coal trade as a result of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine should extend the fuel’s price rally into next year, according to Whitehaven Coal Ltd.

Key consumers in South Korea and Japan are avoiding contracts for new cargoes from Russia, and a lack of alternatives to the exporter’s material is keeping the market under pressure, the Sydney-based company said Wednesday in a production report. “Both thermal and metallurgical prices are expected to be well supported” through 2022 and into next year, the company said.

Benchmark Newcastle thermal coal averaged $264 a ton in the first three months, 43% higher than prices in the final quarter of 2021, Whitehaven said. Prices in April had averaged $302 a ton as of Tuesday, according to the firm. Newcastle coal futures for May have jumped about a third this month. 

“You cannot lose 110 million tons out of the seaborne trade without seeing an impact,” Whitehaven Chief Executive Officer Paul Flynn said Wednesday on a conference call. “That’s just going to add further pressure to what we are already seeing is a very, very tight market.”

While consumers are continuing to accept previously contracted cargoes of Russian coal, some tenders for new purchases by consumers in Japan and South Korea are specifically excluding fuel from the exporter, Flynn said. 

India and China, the world’s largest coal markets, are increasing purchases from Russia as others retreat. India imported about 1.08 million tons last month, more than double the volume in February, according to data provider Kpler Holding SA. China doubled imports of steel-making coal from Russia in March, customs data show.