China reopening may boost Hong Kong’s GDP by 7.6%, Goldman says

Hong Kong, Thailand and Singapore will likely be the biggest beneficiaries as China drops its Covid restrictions and reopens its economy, driving up demand for imports and overseas travel, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

Hong Kong could see an estimated 7.6% boost to its gross domestic product as exports and tourism income climbs, while Thailand’s GDP may get a lift of 2.9%, Goldman Sachs economists wrote in a note. The impact on Singapore is smaller, at 1.2%, followed by 0.7% for Malaysia, they said. 

The estimates are based on the assumption that China’s reopening currently underway will increase the nation’s domestic demand by 5 percentage points and push international trips back to 2019 levels, Goldman’s economists Hui Shan and Goohoon Kwon wrote in the note on Sunday.

“China’s reopening is likely to have the most positive effect on international travel followed by stronger goods imports,” they said.

Hong Kong will likely see a boost to travel spending amounting to 6% of its GDP, while the impact on Thailand is estimated at 3%, Goldman said. The impact may be even stronger if Chinese citizens turn out to have significant “pent-up” demand for travel after three years of borders being closed, the economists said. 

Read More: China May Partially Open HK Border by Late January, Reports Say

Excluding Hong Kong and Singapore, the direct trade boost from China’s reopening will be small for most Asian economies, driving up their GDPs by 0.2-0.4 percentage points, the economists estimated. The increase in Chinese oil demand could lift global oil prices by $15 per barrel, which would have a negative impact on some economies like Hong Kong and Singapore.

The economists said their analysis is based on the direct effects only of China’s reopening on trade and travel and doesn’t take into account potential supply chain disruptions, like what happened in Shanghai and Zhengzhou previously, when workers get infected.