China corn imports to surge to record high this year, US says

China’s appetite for the world’s corn is expected to hit a record this year—and next season’s import haul will be the second largest—as the Asian nation grapples with its own grain shortfall.

Dwindling grain reserves in China are behind a 17% jump in import estimates for the Asian nation, with the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s office in Beijing now anticipating 28 million metric tons of corn imports by China.

“Sources indicate that substantial corn imports will be necessary to control further price increases and maintain buffer stocks throughout calendar year 2021,” the USDA attache said Wednesday in a statement.

China won’t need as much of the world’s corn in the 2021-22 period, with imports seen at 15 million tons, according to the USDA attache. Corn prices in the U.S. have climbed 87% during the last year as China scooped up record amounts of the grain to replenish pig herds recovering faster than expected from African swine fever.

Fresh outbreaks of the deadly virus have emerged, triggering concern that China’s demand for feed imports may wane and cool the biggest crop futures rally in almost a decade.

The U.S. sees China relying more on rice and wheat stocks in the next season to substitute for high-priced corn. Still, corn demand isn’t expected to change “until late calendar year 2021 or 2022 at the earliest,” the USDA attache said.