Cathay Pacific mulls upgrading its post-covid recovery timeline

Cathay Pacific Airways Ltd. expects flight volumes to fully rebound from Covid in the first few weeks of 2025, a person familiar with the matter said, as the airline’s pilot recruitment program goes according to plan and demand for travel remains buoyant.

Hong Kong’s flag carrier is currently operating at about 80% of pre-pandemic levels. The prediction for a full recovery by early 2025 is a little more optimistic than a prior projection that the airline would reach the milestone some time in the first quarter, the person said, asking not to be identified discussing matters that are private.

Representatives for Cathay didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.

Cathay’s recovery gained fresh impetus after the airline added new flights to its summer and winter schedules to various destinations including Ningbo in China and Cairns in Australia. More additions are on the cards, the person said, and could involve redeploying unused aircraft to add extra capacity to the US.

The expansion contrasts with the stance Cathay took in early June when it indicated it wasn’t planning on adding any more flights until passenger volumes topped 100% of pre-Covid levels.

Cathay will know for sure about its early 2025 timeframe in coming weeks as it firms up its winter schedule from October through March, the person said. Any formal upward revision could be announced as soon as Aug. 7, when Cathay is due to release its first-half financial results.

Cathay’s prior caution regarding its recovery timeline stems from the fiasco around the mass flight cancellations that occurred last Christmas and endured for about two months after it failed to roster sufficient pilots for duty.

Restoring flight capacity will remove the last legacy of Covid hanging over the airline. Cathay has already returned to an annual profit and will repay a government Covid loan at the end of the month. It’s also returned all planes that were stored in the desert in Australia.

Cathay’s recovery has also been supported by the fast growth of its low-cost unit, HK Express. HK Express is on track to grow capacity from 140% of pre-Covid levels in June to 180% by the end of the year.

Cirium data for July for Singapore Airlines Ltd., meanwhile, shows that versus 2019 flight levels, it’s around 7% shy of returning to normality.

--With assistance from Linda Lew.

©2024 Bloomberg L.P.