Boeing’s cascade of mishaps fails to deter Wall Street backers

For a company that has been in crisis mode for as long as Boeing Co., the planemaker has some startlingly upbeat support from Wall Street. 

A near-disaster in January during an Alaska Air Group Inc. flight set off a chain reaction of regulatory probes and whistleblower allegations while several other mishaps with other aircraft made by the company have sent the shares plummeting some 35% this year. Through it all though, analysts covering the stock have remained overwhelmingly positive, with more than 60% recommending buying the stock.

The reasoning is simple: despite all its challenges, Boeing’s future looks secure, given its impressive order book, a strong outlook for air-travel demand and a fairly stable competitive landscape. That rosy view will face a critical test Wednesday when the company reports first-quarter results.

“High barriers to entry and a global duopoly are a big part” of what underpins analysts’ confidence in Boeing, said Michael O’Rourke, chief market strategist at JonesTrading, referring to Boeing’s tight grip on the aircraft market with competitor Airbus SE. “The other key point of attraction for investors is its businesses have very long lead times and thus its backlog is a key factor.”  

Out of the 33 analysts covering Boeing, 21 give it a buy rating, with 10 saying hold and only two recommending investors sell the stock, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The average price target on the company stands at $228, reflecting a 34% premium over Monday’s closing price of $170.48. 

That average price target has fallen about 4% over the past twelve months, analysts’ 2024 earnings estimates for Boeing have come down by 87% in the same period. Revenue expectations for the year have dropped 6.4%.

First-quarter estimates have suffered worse. Analysts now see a loss of $1.72 per share, down from the estimate of a profit of 99 cents a year back. Revenue is expected to be around $16.25 billion, down from $21.05 billion. Earlier this month, Boeing reported its lowest deliveries in the first quarter since mid-2021.

“The potential is high for a significant downward revision from Boeing on full year production rates,” said RBC Capital Markets analyst Ken Herbert, who rates the company outperform. “With the company producing just about 40 aircraft in the first quarter, the debate is now focused on where production rates will be exiting 2024.”

Yet, all troubles aside, the company’s orders rebounded in March, with Boeing bringing in 131 gross orders during the first quarter, and 125 net orders including cancellations and the accounting adjustment. The company now holds an order backlog of 5,591 aircraft.