Australia sees lithium exports matching thermal coal by 2028

Australia sees its booming lithium sector matching thermal coal’s importance within five years as the world increasingly shifts from fossil fuels to clean energy. 

Exports of the battery metal are seen at A$19 billion ($13 billion) in the year to June 2028, matching the record seen for the current financial year, according to government projections released Monday. Meanwhile, the value of power station coal shipments will drop 71% in the period. 

Australia has benefited from the global shock to commodities markets following post-Covid supply bottlenecks and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February last year. Mineral exports are set to reach a record A$464 billion in the year through June 2023, despite a recent cooling of prices, before plunging to A$289 billion by 2027-28, nearer levels from a decade earlier. 

The data show the growing role the metals vital to global electrification, such as lithium and copper, are set to play in Australia, one of the world’s biggest fossil fuel exporters. Mining and energy accounts for almost 14% of the economy in the nation, which is currently the biggest shipper of lithium and the second-biggest provider of thermal coal.

While lithium prices are unlikely to return the records set last year, partly a result of global carmakers competing over limited supply to meet ambitious electric vehicle targets, increased output should see the battery metal match thermal coal as the fifth-biggest export. Along with copper it is the only one of the 12 biggest energy and metal exports that will hold or increase its value, according to the report.  

Earnings from shipping copper are set to rise to A$15 billion in 2027-28 from A$13 billion this year. Demand for the red metal, which is used in electrical wiring and is vital in most clean energy technologies, will as much as double over the next decade, according to S&P Global.

Australia has no existing industry that could fill the gaps left by the declining values of fossil fuels, which are expected to drop as the world moves to carbon-free energy, and of iron ore, which is set to see demand plateau over the next decade as China’s growth slows. 

Green hydrogen is the only industry that could match fossil fuel export earnings, according to a government report released in January. But while many massive-scale projects have been proposed, none has begun construction and a wide market for the zero-carbon fuel doesn’t yet exist.