Australia is unlikely to hit its renewable energy goal, Wood Mackenzie says

Australia is set to fall far short of its target of 82% renewable generation by 2030 due to state-level rollbacks, grid connection delays and inadequate investment, consultancy Wood Mackenzie said on Thursday.

WHY IT'S IMPORTANT

Australia's coal power generation makes it one of the highest polluting countries per capita. It plans to shut all coal stations by 2038.

The centre-left Labor government, re-elected early this month, has said it will transition to a majority-renewables grid using wind and solar, backed up by gas, hydropower and energy storage.

Failing to achieve the renewable goal will hinder the country’s broader efforts on climate change and could lead to an energy shortfall.

BY THE NUMBERS

Wood Mackenzie analysis finds Australia is set to achieve 58% renewable energy generation by the end of the decade.

Over the same period, grid-scale energy storage would grow from 2.5 gigawatts to over 16 GW. Around 65 GW of projects are in various stages of development but face grid connection and project planning barriers, it said.

Solar capacity for residential, commercial and industrial use would expand to 46 GW from 29 GW. That could lead to "challenges in managing midday solar peaks," Wood Mackenzie said.

KEY QUOTES

“Despite the federal government’s ambitious targets, our analysis indicates that Australia is currently on track to achieve only 58% renewable electricity generation by 2030,” Senior Analyst Natalie Thompson said.

“Efforts may be further complicated by moves from some state governments, such as Queensland and the Northern Territory, to repeal or scale back their renewable energy targets.”  

“This highlights the urgent need for increased investment and greater coordination across all levels of government to accelerate the energy transition.”

Wood Mackenzie said the government needed to “overcome roadblocks in grid connection and planning processes, ensure a smooth transition and meet planned coal plant closure timeframes”.