Argentina’s trade surplus nears $16 billion under Milei

Argentina likely had a trade surplus for the tenth straight month in September under libertarian President Javier Milei, helping to accumulate a net $16 billion in hard currency since he took office, analysts said in a Reuters poll on Wednesday.

The South American nation, which is facing triple-digit inflation, a painful recession and depleted foreign currency reserves, had a trade surplus of $1.28 billion in September, the median analyst estimate showed.

That would add up to a net surplus of around $16.5 billion since December, when Milei took office pledging a major shake-up of the economy. The streak of surpluses contrasts with a string of trade deficits for most of last year.

Milagros Suardi, economist at consulting firm Eco Go, said exports were improving, led by the farming sector, mining and hydrocarbons. Argentina is a top global supplier of soy and corn, has major shale oil and gas reserves, and large deposits of battery metal lithium.

Pablo Besmedrisnik, economist at VDC consultancy, said that stronger domestic energy production was helping overturn a deep energy deficit in previous years.

"The energy sector will end 2024 with a positive result (surplus) of around $4.2-5 billion, mainly due to higher local production of hydrocarbons and the lower level of activity that demands less energy," he said.

The official INDEC statistics agency is set to release official trade data for September on Friday.