Any India curbs on wheat exports would hurt its neighbors most

Any restrictions on wheat exports by India will likely hurt neighboring countries like Bangladesh and Sri Lanka most, while some Middle Eastern and Asian markets would also be affected.

The food ministry said India doesn’t see a case for controlling wheat exports, but cut the estimate for 2021-22 production. Bloomberg reported earlier this week that the country is considering export restrictions after severe heat damaged India’s wheat crop. 

While India hasn’t been a large shipper of wheat on the global market, the war in Ukraine and drought in some major growing nations have elevated its importance as one of the few remaining places with ample stockpiles. Major buyers including Egypt have recently approved access for Indian wheat. 

Traders have already contracted to export 4 million tons in 2022-23, the food ministry said, adding that Turkey has also given approval to import wheat from India. The South Asian nation in April targeted record shipments of up to 15 million tons this fiscal year, from more than 7 million a year earlier.