American farmers are set to plant more corn as war in Ukraine threatens supply

American farmers are set to plant more corn than last year, thanks in part to price increases caused by Russia’s attack on Ukraine, according to analytics firm Gro Intelligence.

Corn acres will rise to 95 million, up from 93.4 million last year and soybeans will decline, according to the group’s AI-driven modeling. The figures come ahead of the U.S. Department of Agriculture planting estimates, which are due in a report at the end of this month.

Soaring crop prices amid the war are likely already having an impact on plantings and motivating farmers to increase acres, Gro Intelligence senior analyst Jonathan Haines said in an interview. Corn futures in Chicago are trading at the highest since 2012 and are outperforming soybeans this year.

The forecasts go against expectations that surging fertilizer prices will lead farmers to reduce the sowing of chemically reliant corn. A bigger U.S. harvest could help boost world grain supplies as drought puts Brazilian crops at risk and Russia’s attack on Ukraine threatens to severely disrupt Black Sea trade, which makes up nearly a fifth of global shipments of the grain.

Acres for both U.S. spring wheat, which is used in pizza dough and bagels, and durum, prized for making high-quality pasta, are seen rising by a combined 855,000 acres. Cotton plantings are also expected to increase.

Gro uses a wide range of data to come up with its estimates, and unlike the USDA, doesn’t survey farmers.