Logistics players adapting to Europe automotive industry’s shift in dynamics

According to the Association of European Vehicle Logistics (ECG), the finished vehicles industry stands at a pivotal moment within a rapidly evolving global automotive landscape, marked by the acceleration of electric vehicle adoption, China’s rise as a manufacturing and technology powerhouse, and ongoing geopolitical and supply chain uncertainties that are reshaping the industry on an unprecedented scale.

In an interview with AJOT, Sander Van Der Meer, SVP Vertical Market Hi-Tech and Automotive at Geodis, discusses how logistics services providers (LSP) are adapting to the shifting dynamics in the automotive space and highlights the new opportunities for growth that are opening up.

AJOT: What has been the impact of the 15% tariffs on US imports of automobiles from the EU which took effect from August 1 last year?

SVDM: In terms of numbers, EU car exports to the US decreased by around 21% in 2025 as a direct effect of the tariffs. Early-2026 data shows the pace of decline accelerating — exports were down 27-28% in January and February year-on-year. A framework agreement was reached between Washington and Brussels that reduced the tariff rate, initially set at 27.5% to 15%, but even at that level the damage to export volumes is clear and the uncertainty has already reshaped production and shipping decisions.

AJOT: And the knock-on effects for European automotive logistics players such as Geodis?

SVDM: Fewer cars and parts going to the U.S. means less business, less freight, and quieter automotive hubs. But the bigger issue is what's happening behind the scenes. Our customers are rethinking where they produce and how their supply chains are set up. That makes planning harder and longer-term commitments more difficult for everyone.

At Geodis, we are dealing with this by staying close to our customers and what they are doing — not just moving their cargo but supporting them across the full chain: parts distribution and inbound flows. When customers are going through a restructuring, they need a partner that helps them through these transitions, and we are working with them to find logistics solutions.

AJOT: Are Chinese automakers emerging as the main driver of demand for automotive logistics services in Europe as incumbent manufacturers’ output continues to decline?

SVDM: Chinese OEMs are already a material part of the European automotive story and it’s only going in one direction. The top three Chinese brands in Western and Central Europe registered over 617,000 passenger cars in 2025, compared to under 26,000 in 2020. BYD is building a greenfield production facility in Hungary, and SAIC appears to have narrowed down a European production location in the EU to Spain. The shift from import-only to local European production is accelerating and with it, growth in supplier networks, inbound parts, finished vehicle distribution, and after sales.

AJOT: Does Geodis have growing business in the European market with Chinese automakers?

SVDM: Chinese OEMs are absolutely on our radar — they're a priority for us. We have a strong existing customer base in the automotive vertical and we're actively engaging with Chinese brands that are expanding their presence in Europe.

Those conversations are happening but we’re being selective about how we enter this space. We want to make sure the partnerships we build are the right ones, structured in a way that works for both sides. We’re not in a rush to sign deals that don’t fit. When the right opportunity comes along, Geodis has the network, the expertise, and the European footprint to be a strong partner for any Chinese OEM serious about growing here.

AJOT: With market conditions difficult for European automakers, are they looking to reduce spending on transport and logistics costs?

SVDM: There’s always pressure of this kind when margins come under strain. But the more discerning OEMs understand that cutting logistics spend indiscriminately just transfers risk. What we’re actually seeing is a sharper focus on total cost of ownership — customers want fewer, more strategic logistics partners who can offer integrated solutions rather than fragmented spot buying. Tender activity is up but it’s not purely a race to the bottom on price. Reliability, visibility, and flexibility have become differentiators because production disruptions are expensive. The OEMs that went too lean on logistics during previous cycles learned that lesson. Our job is to demonstrate that we deliver value beyond the rate — and in the current environment, that argument holds.

AJOT: How have Geodis’ activities in the automotive vertical been affected by the conflict in the Middle East and the spike in fuel prices?

SVDM: The Middle East situation hit us operationally — longer lead times on Asia-Europe lanes, higher freight rates, more complexity for customers running supply chains through that region.

Fuel and diesel cost increases are also hitting us hard. It’s one of the most direct cost pressures we face right now, and it’s not going away. We manage it through our carrier contracts and commercial structures but there’s no getting around the fact that it squeezes margins across the board.

The longer-term concern is bigger than any single disruption though. Customers are realising they can’t rely on one route or one corridor. We’re actively helping them rethink their supply chain design and build in more resilience — because the next disruption is always around the corner.

AJOT: What other challenges are you faced with currently in this vertical?

SVDM: Three challenges come to mind. First, the pace of electrification is reshaping the parts and after-sales logistics footprint. EVs have significantly fewer components than ICE vehicles which has downstream implications for spare parts networks.

Second, the battery supply chain is still in its infancy in Europe — cell production, pack assembly, and reverse logistics for end-of-life batteries all need purpose-built logistics solutions that the industry is still developing.

Third, the political and trade environment remains unpredictable. Tariff changes, EU-China relations, and potential further US measures all create planning uncertainty that makes multi-year logistics contracts harder to structure. Adapting to that uncertainty without losing commercial momentum is the real challenge.