Airbus expects China, India to drive jet sales over 20 years

Airbus SE predicted China and India will be key growth drivers for the aviation industry in the next two decades as the planemaker expects the global commercial fleet will double in the period.

The company anticipates the world will have 48,230 aircraft in 2043, compared with 24,240 planes at the start of this year, according to Airbus’s annual Global Market Forecast. About 45% of all new plane deliveries will be to replace older, less fuel efficient aircraft, according to the forecast.

“The Indian carriers are expanding their international and their widebody operations that had historically been served by foreign carriers,” Joost Van Der Heijden, Airbus’s head of marketing, said on a call.

Carriers in India have loaded up on new plane orders as demand for flying soars with a growing middle class. Market leader IndiGo has more than 1,000 aircraft on order, including a recent agreement for its first long-haul jets, while recently privatized Air India Ltd. is looking to shore up its fleet and ramp up services across its network.

Airbus also projected demand for widebody jets to be 8,920 planes, about 9% higher compared with the 2023 forecast. This includes 940 freighters, a 2% increase from last year’s prediction. The increase in twin-aisle demand was driven by North and South America, while forecasting a slight reduction in the Middle East, where hub carriers have made it the biggest market for the type. 

Single-aisle jets will dominate the markets in Latin America, Africa and parts of Asia, said Bob Lange, Airbus’s head of market analysis and forecasts.

Airbus’s forecast comes at a time when the planemaker and its rival Boeing Co are struggling to ramp up production and many airlines in the US and in Europe have taken a more gloomy view on their near-term prospects.

On Friday, Deutsche Lufthansa AG cut its profit outlook for the full year as it wrestles with higher unit costs and falling ticket prices. On Thursday, Delta Air Lines Inc. warned that US domestic carriers are struggling to fill planes, dragging down ticket prices in a fare war that’s weighing on profits.  

The International Air Transport Association said last month that there’s still pent-up demand for cross-border travel in Asia, and that the region will bring in about $600 million in profit this year. That compares with $14.8 billion in profit in North America, by far the biggest contributor to the aviation industry’s earnings.

(Updates with widebody demand forecast in fifth paragraph.)

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