If the Strait of Hormuz is not mined, ‘ships could be evacuated within two weeks’ - IMO official

Following the announcement of a two-week ceasefire between the U.S., Israel and Iran, the International Maritime Organization (IMO) is working on the creation of the conditions necessary to ensure that transit through the strategic Strait of Hormuz can take place in relative safety.

While the truce, after almost six weeks of hostilities, has clearly been welcomed by many countries and players in the ocean shipping sector, it raises numerous security and logistical issues, as Damien Chevallier, the UN maritime agency’s security officer, pointed out in an interview in French business newspaper, Les Echos.

There are believed to be approximately 2,000 ships and 20,000 seafarers stranded in the Persian Gulf. Traffic remains virtually non-existent, with 10–11 ships passing through each day compared to an estimated 130-140 before the crisis.

Traffic Separation Scheme

“Following the announcement of a ceasefire, our task is to organize the evacuation of the ships, Obviously, we cannot evacuate 2,000 ships in a single day. We have put forward a technical plan to the various parties involved in the conflict, and in particular to those responsible for ensuring the safety of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz: Iran and Oman,” Chevallier said.

He explained that a traffic separation scheme, adopted by the UN back in 1968, governs the northbound and southbound lanes in the Strait, under the responsibility of these two states. This scheme identified the optimal routes to ensure efficient and safe traffic flow.

“We are also working with industry representatives to organize and coordinate this evacuation. For our part, we are ready; we are now awaiting a response from Iran and Muscat. One of the main challenges is coordinating the movements of all of these ships to avoid the risk of collisions. Lists must be drawn up of the ships that will be able to pass through the evacuation corridors each day. It is estimated that all the ships can be evacuated within two weeks.”

“But that will depend on when we can start, because for the moment, despite the announcements, the situation remains the same as yesterday: there is no traffic, apart from a few isolated cases. We have not received any specific information regarding the presence or absence of mines. The reason we are submitting our plan to the coastal states is precisely to obtain a guarantee that there is no risk to the safety of navigation or seafarers. That is the essential condition.”

Earlier today (April 9th), the Iranian authorities announced that ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz must take two alternative routes along the Iranian coast, citing the possibility of mines on the usual route.

‘Very Fragile Situation’

Chevalier underlined that ocean shipping remains a long way from a return to normal traffic.

“The ceasefire announced is for two weeks. Our priority is to evacuate the ships. The question of restoring traffic through the strait will certainly be the subject of discussions, but at a later stage. For the time being, we do not have the necessary safety guarantees. Given the very fragile situation, we cannot encourage other ships to enter the Strait. We must consider the risks to which the seafarers are exposed.”

He went on to note that the war has brought into sharp relief the role ships and seafarers play in the global economy, and the dependence of all nations on international shipping.

“It is in the interests of all nations not to drag the shipping industry into geopolitical conflicts. Seafarers keep this vital link in the global supply chain running.”

‘Freedom of Navigation Cardinal Principle of Law of The Sea’

A major obstacle to the resumption of shipping is that Iran wants to act as the guarantor of security in the Strait of Hormuz and collect a toll (paid in bitcoin). “There will be a new mechanism, with a transit fee similar to those for the Suez and Panama Canals,” an Iranian diplomatic source commented in a media interview.

The Iranians are said to be willing to share control with Oman, but such plans were immediately rejected by the sultanate’s minister of Transport. “We have signed all the agreements relating to maritime transport which stipulate that there are no charges for passage through the Strait of Hormuz.”

Donald Trump suggested in a recent interview on the ABC news channel that a ‘joint venture’ between the US and Iran to levy a tax on ships in exchange for an organized and secure passage through the Strait was conceivable.

However, according to an official at France’s Centre for Strategic Studies of Naval Affairs (CESM), the US president is overlooking the fact that “freedom of navigation is the cardinal principle of the law of the sea.”

Regardless of the concept of territorial waters (12 miles off the coast) and exclusive economic zones (200 miles off the coast), the ‘right of unimpeded transit’ (Article 38 of the Montego Bay Convention) takes precedence: ‘no rule can justify the imposition of a maritime toll.’

Today, Reuters reported that only seven ships had passed through the Strait in the past 24 hours, including one oil products tanker and six dry bulk carriers, quoting data from Kpler, Lloyd’s List Intelligence and Signal Ocean.